EFE.- Private sector specialists have increased the forecast for Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 1.11% for 2026, up from a previous estimate of 1.07%, according to the seventh monthly survey of specialists on the main economic indicators by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) released this Monday.
The forecast for 2027 also improved slightly, rising from 1.76% to 1.79%, according to the average of 42 national and foreign analysis and consulting groups consulted by the central bank between July 19 and 27.
These projections are released ahead of the observed figures on Mexico's GDP growth, which, if the timely estimate pointing to a year-on-year increase of 2.1% is confirmed, would indicate that the Mexican economy has reached a new peak level, after recording its worst quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.
On the other hand, experts improved the outlook for general inflation at the end of 2026 to an estimate of 3.92%, down from a previous 4.21%.
This forecast comes after the inflation rate dropped to 3.1% in the first half of July.
For 2027, specialists reduced the inflation projection to 3.85%, slightly lower than the 3.86% from the previous month, although still above the central bank's target of 3%.
As factors that could hinder growth in Mexico over the next six months, experts generally highlighted governance (44%), external conditions (26%), and internal economic conditions (22%).
Specifically, they pointed out public insecurity (21%), foreign trade policy (15%), the absence of structural change in Mexico (9%), other issues related to the lack of rule of law (9%), weakness in the domestic market (6%), and corruption (6%).
Analysts slightly improved the exchange rate outlook, now estimating that the Mexican currency will close 2026 at 17.82 units per dollar, lower than the previous projection of 17.83 pesos per dollar.
For 2027, specialists estimate that the Mexican currency will exchange at 18.38 units per dollar, lower than the previous estimate of 18.4 from the last month.
Regarding the external sector, for 2026, expectations for the trade deficit were reduced to $7.959 billion from previous estimates of $8.947 billion.
Additionally, the forecast for foreign direct investment (FDI) was increased to a projection of $41.560 billion from a previous estimate of $41.232 billion.
